My knee jerk reaction was also that 30-40% was an unreasonably high number, however, I kind of disagree with “Unreasonably large estimates shouldn’t be allowed to frame the discussion just because we can’t reject them with model evidence yet” since it’s hard to know what numbers are reasonable in the first place. It also provides a good starting point to the discussion and to challenge my assumptions on why I automatically want to reject the 30-40%.
My knee jerk reaction was also that 30-40% was an unreasonably high number, however, I kind of disagree with “Unreasonably large estimates shouldn’t be allowed to frame the discussion just because we can’t reject them with model evidence yet” since it’s hard to know what numbers are reasonable in the first place. It also provides a good starting point to the discussion and to challenge my assumptions on why I automatically want to reject the 30-40%.
What makes 30-40% a better starting point than 90%? Or 5%?