I don’t understand 2. The neglected cascading effects have to cascade from somewhere. You are saying that the model could be missing an effect on the variables in its system from variables outside the system. But the variables outside the system you highlight are only going to be activated when the variables in the system are highly perturbed!
Forgetting the models for a second, if the only causal story to wars and mass migration that we can think of goes through high levels of economic disruption, then it is sufficient to see small levels of economic disruption and conclude that wars and mass migration are very unlikely.
I do not think that “small levels” is necessarily what we see—increased rates of natural disasters have really substantial effects on migration and could produce localized resource conflicts. But those don’t seem large scale enough to trigger global catastrophes.
I don’t understand 2. The neglected cascading effects have to cascade from somewhere. You are saying that the model could be missing an effect on the variables in its system from variables outside the system. But the variables outside the system you highlight are only going to be activated when the variables in the system are highly perturbed!
Forgetting the models for a second, if the only causal story to wars and mass migration that we can think of goes through high levels of economic disruption, then it is sufficient to see small levels of economic disruption and conclude that wars and mass migration are very unlikely.
I do not think that “small levels” is necessarily what we see—increased rates of natural disasters have really substantial effects on migration and could produce localized resource conflicts. But those don’t seem large scale enough to trigger global catastrophes.