Yup, I totally agree it’s important for EA people to look at it in more detail. My impression was that IPCC reports survey expert priors, which do not have to be solely based on existing modelling frameworks, so I don’t know if that is a huge barrier. But I will defer to you on how the report is made.
I am not sure of the value of the two benefits you describe. If most experts had priors scattered fully over the range up to 30-40%, then I would be very shocked and would update my beliefs a lot. I just feel like most priors are very very far from this upper bound and that there is a false equivalence being implied by discussing this whole range.
Similarly, if the purpose is to show that a number can’t be concretely refuted, I don’t think that is valuable. The burden of proof is on someone making the claim, not vice versa. If I claim that the risk of human extinction this century is 80%, you would have a hard time concretely refuting me. But that wouldn’t lend any credence to my argument because I haven’t established it in any way.
Yup, I totally agree it’s important for EA people to look at it in more detail. My impression was that IPCC reports survey expert priors, which do not have to be solely based on existing modelling frameworks, so I don’t know if that is a huge barrier. But I will defer to you on how the report is made.
I am not sure of the value of the two benefits you describe. If most experts had priors scattered fully over the range up to 30-40%, then I would be very shocked and would update my beliefs a lot. I just feel like most priors are very very far from this upper bound and that there is a false equivalence being implied by discussing this whole range.
Similarly, if the purpose is to show that a number can’t be concretely refuted, I don’t think that is valuable. The burden of proof is on someone making the claim, not vice versa. If I claim that the risk of human extinction this century is 80%, you would have a hard time concretely refuting me. But that wouldn’t lend any credence to my argument because I haven’t established it in any way.