I agree with Damon’s comment. To add to that, in the post, you appeal to Mark Lynas’ opinion on the risk of collapse due to climate change. But he thinks civilisation will collapse due to the direct effects.
Another point is that economic models can shed light on how big the indirect effects are meant to be. Presumably if something has larger direct effects, then it will have larger indirect effects, as a rule. If the models are correct and the direct costs of climate change of 2-3C are equivalent to ~5% GDP, that would put it in the ballpark many other problems that constrain global welfare, like housing regulation, poor pricing of water, underinvestment in R&D, the lack of a land value tax, etc. But few argue that these sorts of problems are a key driver of the risk of nuclear war this century.
I agree with Damon’s comment. To add to that, in the post, you appeal to Mark Lynas’ opinion on the risk of collapse due to climate change. But he thinks civilisation will collapse due to the direct effects.
Another point is that economic models can shed light on how big the indirect effects are meant to be. Presumably if something has larger direct effects, then it will have larger indirect effects, as a rule. If the models are correct and the direct costs of climate change of 2-3C are equivalent to ~5% GDP, that would put it in the ballpark many other problems that constrain global welfare, like housing regulation, poor pricing of water, underinvestment in R&D, the lack of a land value tax, etc. But few argue that these sorts of problems are a key driver of the risk of nuclear war this century.