Greg_Colbourn ⏸️ comments on AI Risk timelines: 10% chance (by year X) should be the headline (and deadline), not 50%. And 10% is _this year_!

Greg_Colbourn ⏸️ 6 Jan 2026 11:36 UTC
2 points
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The 10% comes from the linked aggregate of forecasts, from thousands of people’s estimates/bets on Metaculus, Manifold and Kalshi; not the EA community.