Agreed on all of these except climate change. I think the Russia/Ukraine war will probably result in Europe and America investing more in energy technology (which will mostly be green and low-carbon energy), and will probably raise the price of oil (ie lowering the total amount of oil that gets burned), such that we might come out ahead on our climate goals. I suppose my disagreement with you is that I see progress on climate/energy as significantly driven by technology and economics, so it is okay if we take a hit on international coordination and unity in exchange for getting better green-energy tech. But others could certainly disagree here!
The effects on nuclear and biorisk seem pretty direct, as you outlined. The effect on AI seems more indirect, but AI is so important that possibly this is still the biggest effect of the bunch. If the world is just heading towards less trust / less coordination / more militarism / more great-power competition / more friction between the USA and China, that is probably bad for humanity in a lot of ways, including AI x-risk as you described.
Agreed on all of these except climate change. I think the Russia/Ukraine war will probably result in Europe and America investing more in energy technology (which will mostly be green and low-carbon energy), and will probably raise the price of oil (ie lowering the total amount of oil that gets burned), such that we might come out ahead on our climate goals. I suppose my disagreement with you is that I see progress on climate/energy as significantly driven by technology and economics, so it is okay if we take a hit on international coordination and unity in exchange for getting better green-energy tech. But others could certainly disagree here!
The effects on nuclear and biorisk seem pretty direct, as you outlined. The effect on AI seems more indirect, but AI is so important that possibly this is still the biggest effect of the bunch. If the world is just heading towards less trust / less coordination / more militarism / more great-power competition / more friction between the USA and China, that is probably bad for humanity in a lot of ways, including AI x-risk as you described.