Amazing writeup! Really interesting and well-written.
I decided to crosspost it to Manifold Markets and created a prediction market. You state that you estimate a 50% chance short sleeper genes work as advertised. Curious to see what other people think!
If you have any suggestions on how the resolution criteria or anything else can be more well-defined let me know and I can make adjustments to the market.
We are currently having growth in genome sequencing as it gets cheaper. Interesting questions are whether or not any of the mutations in this post lead to statistically reduced lifespan once someone has a sample of people who died whose genes have been sequenced, where at least X had this mutation.
Amazing writeup! Really interesting and well-written.
I decided to crosspost it to Manifold Markets and created a prediction market. You state that you estimate a 50% chance short sleeper genes work as advertised. Curious to see what other people think!
If you have any suggestions on how the resolution criteria or anything else can be more well-defined let me know and I can make adjustments to the market.
We are currently having growth in genome sequencing as it gets cheaper. Interesting questions are whether or not any of the mutations in this post lead to statistically reduced lifespan once someone has a sample of people who died whose genes have been sequenced, where at least X had this mutation.