I don’t think this is insane, and I think <20% is probably too low a threshold to carry the case—a 15% risk of extinction from AGI would mean we should be drastically, drastically more scared of AGI than of nuclear war.
What percentage chance would you estimate of a large scale nuclear war conditional on the U.S. bombing a Chinese data center? What percentage of the risk from agi do you think this strategy reduces?
I don’t think this is insane, and I think <20% is probably too low a threshold to carry the case—a 15% risk of extinction from AGI would mean we should be drastically, drastically more scared of AGI than of nuclear war.
What percentage chance would you estimate of a large scale nuclear war conditional on the U.S. bombing a Chinese data center? What percentage of the risk from agi do you think this strategy reduces?