I don’t think the crux here is about nanofactories – I’d imagine that if Eliezer considered a world identical to ours but where nanofactories were impossible, he’d place (almost) as high probability on doom (though he’d presumably expect doom to be somewhat more drawn out).
I don’t think the crux here is about nanofactories – I’d imagine that if Eliezer considered a world identical to ours but where nanofactories were impossible, he’d place (almost) as high probability on doom (though he’d presumably expect doom to be somewhat more drawn out).