Hi Charlotte—as you can imagine, estimating the latter is much more difficult due to reasoning about counterfactuals. But I do have some thoughts on it in this section of a post in the sequence.
I think the key claim you’d be looking for there is:
My best guess is that the knowledge of GPT-3’s existence sped up both DeepMind and Google’s work scaling up language models by six months (90% CI: 1–18 months). But I have not been able to distinguish whether this acceleration was driven by insider knowledge, or the publication of GPT-3, or the hype generated after publication, or some combination of those factors.
As my 90% confidence interval shows, I’m very uncertain, but I hope this helps.
Hi Charlotte—as you can imagine, estimating the latter is much more difficult due to reasoning about counterfactuals. But I do have some thoughts on it in this section of a post in the sequence.
I think the key claim you’d be looking for there is:
As my 90% confidence interval shows, I’m very uncertain, but I hope this helps.