“that many short term welfare benefits to humans are likely to compound in a way that means that the size of short term benefit tracks the size of long term benefit.”
I think this is actually controversial in the EA community. My impression is that Eliezer Yudkowsky and Luke Muehlhauser would disagree with it, as would I. Others who support the view are likely to acknowledge that it’s non-obvious and could be mistaken. Many forms of short-term progress may increase long-term risks.
“that many short term welfare benefits to humans are likely to compound in a way that means that the size of short term benefit tracks the size of long term benefit.”
I think this is actually controversial in the EA community. My impression is that Eliezer Yudkowsky and Luke Muehlhauser would disagree with it, as would I. Others who support the view are likely to acknowledge that it’s non-obvious and could be mistaken. Many forms of short-term progress may increase long-term risks.