Forecasting tools and prediction markets allow you to state your credence in something precisely and view others’ credences. This can be an important way of gathering information from a group or sharing information precisely between individuals.
In this session, we’ll discuss the use of some forecasting tools and do a short exercise using one of them.
A post discussing the use of forecasting tools is also available here. Some examples of the tools we’ll be talking about include Metaculus, PredictionBook, and Manifold Markets.
Forecasting: How and Why
Forecasting tools and prediction markets allow you to state your credence in something precisely and view others’ credences. This can be an important way of gathering information from a group or sharing information precisely between individuals.
In this session, we’ll discuss the use of some forecasting tools and do a short exercise using one of them.
A post discussing the use of forecasting tools is also available here. Some examples of the tools we’ll be talking about include Metaculus, PredictionBook, and Manifold Markets.