Thank you for a great and detailed summary of the issue Siebe!
As recent developments seem like quite a major improvement (even if at least temporarily)- for the Nov 22 update to new cases, are any major causes emerging yet for the increase in less than one year recoveries and reduction in severe LC cases? And when over the next few years would you expect the numbers to grow significantly, as a rough estimate?
Less positively, I really agree about the potential for cognitive decline via asymptomatic LC to impact decision-making of those in power. If most people, including those in power, get Covid and even mild cases might cause a small intelligence drop, if enough potentially hazardous situations happen, even this small decline could be enough to tip the balance in an international crisis. Even if this might be bad and not disastrous in some arenas and some mistakes can be corrected, perhaps just one miscalculation is most worrying for potential nuclear diplomacy/crises? (E.g. if Stanislav Petrov helped to save the world from an accidental nuclear war by quickly reaching the conclusions that a system malfunction was more likely than a small enemy nuclear first-strike, might a future ‘mild/moderate brain fog Petrov’ not interpret any unexpected information quite so well?)
On treatment, do you have any opinion on Low Dose Naltrexone, which many ME/CFS sufferers have found beneficial and, according to at least some very preliminary evidence, might be useful for LC? And as a final question, though I don’t doubt there’s a significant drop, do you also know if there are any good studies on the average happiness/life satisfaction loss of LC sufferers?
Either way, I hope you’re feeling as good as possible with your LC experience (from someone with previous/managed experience of ME/CFS) and thanks again for a great post.
“are any major causes emerging yet for the increase in less than one year recoveries and reduction in severe LC cases?”
Not sure if I understand your question, but: it looks like people who got LC from a reinfection were getting assigned as if they had LC since their first infection, which messed up the recovery data.
I still don’t know why new cases are less likely and less severe, probably a combination of: fewer susceptible people, significant protection from vaccines and previous infection, and a longer time since certain viruses were prevalent that led to an imprinted response. That is, the immune systems of people who develop Long Covid seem to often have responded by making antibodies against other coronaviruses rather than making entirely new and specific antibodies.
And when over the next few years would you expect the numbers to grow significantly, as a rough estimate?
6-12 months maybe? I don’t know. Vaccinations are dropping in Western countries. I don’t think we’ll see a similar growth rate as we saw on the
LDN: funding for a trial just got announced. It won’t be a game changer, but seems like it helps some people somewhat (and a lucky few benefit a lot)
Life satisfaction: not aware of great studies. It’s pretty bad, though maybe not as bad as ME/CFS. I’m especially worried about people in low income countries, which we hear next to nothing about
Thank you for a great and detailed summary of the issue Siebe!
As recent developments seem like quite a major improvement (even if at least temporarily)- for the Nov 22 update to new cases, are any major causes emerging yet for the increase in less than one year recoveries and reduction in severe LC cases? And when over the next few years would you expect the numbers to grow significantly, as a rough estimate?
Less positively, I really agree about the potential for cognitive decline via asymptomatic LC to impact decision-making of those in power. If most people, including those in power, get Covid and even mild cases might cause a small intelligence drop, if enough potentially hazardous situations happen, even this small decline could be enough to tip the balance in an international crisis. Even if this might be bad and not disastrous in some arenas and some mistakes can be corrected, perhaps just one miscalculation is most worrying for potential nuclear diplomacy/crises? (E.g. if Stanislav Petrov helped to save the world from an accidental nuclear war by quickly reaching the conclusions that a system malfunction was more likely than a small enemy nuclear first-strike, might a future ‘mild/moderate brain fog Petrov’ not interpret any unexpected information quite so well?)
On treatment, do you have any opinion on Low Dose Naltrexone, which many ME/CFS sufferers have found beneficial and, according to at least some very preliminary evidence, might be useful for LC? And as a final question, though I don’t doubt there’s a significant drop, do you also know if there are any good studies on the average happiness/life satisfaction loss of LC sufferers?
Either way, I hope you’re feeling as good as possible with your LC experience (from someone with previous/managed experience of ME/CFS) and thanks again for a great post.
“are any major causes emerging yet for the increase in less than one year recoveries and reduction in severe LC cases?” Not sure if I understand your question, but: it looks like people who got LC from a reinfection were getting assigned as if they had LC since their first infection, which messed up the recovery data.
I still don’t know why new cases are less likely and less severe, probably a combination of: fewer susceptible people, significant protection from vaccines and previous infection, and a longer time since certain viruses were prevalent that led to an imprinted response. That is, the immune systems of people who develop Long Covid seem to often have responded by making antibodies against other coronaviruses rather than making entirely new and specific antibodies.
And when over the next few years would you expect the numbers to grow significantly, as a rough estimate? 6-12 months maybe? I don’t know. Vaccinations are dropping in Western countries. I don’t think we’ll see a similar growth rate as we saw on the
LDN: funding for a trial just got announced. It won’t be a game changer, but seems like it helps some people somewhat (and a lucky few benefit a lot)
Life satisfaction: not aware of great studies. It’s pretty bad, though maybe not as bad as ME/CFS. I’m especially worried about people in low income countries, which we hear next to nothing about