I might have been too directive when writing this post. I lack the organizational context and knowledge of how CEAs are used to say definitively that this should be changed. I ultimately agree that this is a small change that might not affect the decisions made, and it’s up to you to decide whether to account for it. However, some of the points you raised against updating this are incorrect.
I might have focused too much on the 10% reduction, while the real issue, as Elliot mentioned, is that you ignore two variables in the formula for DALYs averted:
Missing out on three 10% reductions in error X results in a difference of 0.1^3 = 27.1% which could be significant. I generally view organizations as growing through small iterative changes and optimization rather than big leaps.
My critique is only valid if you are trying to measure DALYs averted. If you choose to do something similar to GiveWell, which is more arbitrary, then it might not make sense to adjust for this anymore.
The three changes to the value of life saved come from different frameworks:
GiveWell values don’t represent DALYs averted but are mixed with other factors such as survey results.
HLI’s work is based on the assumption that death isn’t the worst possible state and that there is a baseline quality of life that must be met for a life to be worth living.
The change I’m suggesting is compatible with your current method of estimating the value of life saved. It doesn’t introduce any new assumptions; it simply makes some assumptions explicit. Unless you state something like, “We used those values initially but then detached them from their original formulas and now we will update them in another way,” my suggestion should fit within your existing framework.
EDIT:
I can’t say much about the GiveWell 1.5% rate, but I’ve heard it comes from the Rethink Priorities review, but it suggests 4.3% discount rate: can you direct me somewhere where I can read more about it?
Hi, Thank you. All good points. Fully agree with ongoing iterative improvement to our CEAs and hopefully you will see such improvements happening over the various research rounds (see also my reply to Nick). I also agree with picking up on specific cases where this might be a bigger issue (see my reply to Larks). I don’t think it is fair to say that we treat those two numbers as zero but it is fair to say we are currently using a fairly crude approximation to get at what those numbers are getting it in our lives saved calculations.
I might have been too directive when writing this post. I lack the organizational context and knowledge of how CEAs are used to say definitively that this should be changed. I ultimately agree that this is a small change that might not affect the decisions made, and it’s up to you to decide whether to account for it. However, some of the points you raised against updating this are incorrect.
I might have focused too much on the 10% reduction, while the real issue, as Elliot mentioned, is that you ignore two variables in the formula for DALYs averted:
Missing out on three 10% reductions in error X results in a difference of 0.1^3 = 27.1% which could be significant. I generally view organizations as growing through small iterative changes and optimization rather than big leaps.
My critique is only valid if you are trying to measure DALYs averted. If you choose to do something similar to GiveWell, which is more arbitrary, then it might not make sense to adjust for this anymore.
The three changes to the value of life saved come from different frameworks:
GiveWell values don’t represent DALYs averted but are mixed with other factors such as survey results.
HLI’s work is based on the assumption that death isn’t the worst possible state and that there is a baseline quality of life that must be met for a life to be worth living.
The change I’m suggesting is compatible with your current method of estimating the value of life saved. It doesn’t introduce any new assumptions; it simply makes some assumptions explicit. Unless you state something like, “We used those values initially but then detached them from their original formulas and now we will update them in another way,” my suggestion should fit within your existing framework.
EDIT:
I can’t say much about the GiveWell 1.5% rate, but I’ve heard it comes from the Rethink Priorities review, but it suggests 4.3% discount rate: can you direct me somewhere where I can read more about it?
Hi, Thank you. All good points. Fully agree with ongoing iterative improvement to our CEAs and hopefully you will see such improvements happening over the various research rounds (see also my reply to Nick). I also agree with picking up on specific cases where this might be a bigger issue (see my reply to Larks). I don’t think it is fair to say that we treat those two numbers as zero but it is fair to say we are currently using a fairly crude approximation to get at what those numbers are getting it in our lives saved calculations.
For a source on discounting see here: https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/a-review-of-givewells-discount-rate#we-recommend-that-givewell-continue-discounting-health-at-a-lower-rate-than-consumption-but-we-are-uncertain-about-the-precise-discount-rate
“Discounting consumption vs. health benefits | Discount health benefits using only the temporal uncertainty component”