I think this is a good analysis and I agree with your conclusions, but I have one minor point:
If younger people are disproportionately not taking jobs that are more exposed to AI, there are two possibilities:
They can’t get the jobs because firms are using AI instead.
They don’t try to enter those fields because they expect that there will be decreased demand due to AI.
Your claim seems to be that a decrease would be due to point 1, but I think it could be equally well due to point 2. Anecdotally, people who are interested in translation and interpretation do tend to think seriously about whether there will be declining demand due to computer systems, so I think point 2 would be plausible were we to see an effect. I might also want to compare the proportion of young workers in AI affected occupations to those in AI-proof occupations (physical labor? heavily licensed industries?) over time, to make sure that any effects aren’t due to overall changes in how easy it is for young people to enter the labor force. But this is really interesting and my comments are mostly moot since we aren’t seeing an effect in the main data.
I think this is a good analysis and I agree with your conclusions, but I have one minor point:
If younger people are disproportionately not taking jobs that are more exposed to AI, there are two possibilities:
They can’t get the jobs because firms are using AI instead.
They don’t try to enter those fields because they expect that there will be decreased demand due to AI.
Your claim seems to be that a decrease would be due to point 1, but I think it could be equally well due to point 2. Anecdotally, people who are interested in translation and interpretation do tend to think seriously about whether there will be declining demand due to computer systems, so I think point 2 would be plausible were we to see an effect. I might also want to compare the proportion of young workers in AI affected occupations to those in AI-proof occupations (physical labor? heavily licensed industries?) over time, to make sure that any effects aren’t due to overall changes in how easy it is for young people to enter the labor force. But this is really interesting and my comments are mostly moot since we aren’t seeing an effect in the main data.