I’m completely sold on the arguments in general EV terms (the vast suffering, tractability, importance, neglect—even within EA), up to the limits of how confident I can be about anything this complex. That’s basically the fringe possibilities—weird second, third-order impacts from the messiness of life that mean I couldn’t be >98% on something like this.
The deontological point was that maybe there is a good reason I should only care or vastly weight humans over animals through some moral obligation. I don’t currently believe that but I’m hedging for it, because I could be convinced.
I realise now I’m basically saying I 90% agree that rolling a D20 for 3+ is a good idea, when it would be fair to also interpret it that I 100% agree it’s a good idea ex ante.
(Also my first comment was terrible, sorry I just wanted to get on the board on priors before reading the debate)
I’m completely sold on the arguments in general EV terms (the vast suffering, tractability, importance, neglect—even within EA), up to the limits of how confident I can be about anything this complex. That’s basically the fringe possibilities—weird second, third-order impacts from the messiness of life that mean I couldn’t be >98% on something like this.
The deontological point was that maybe there is a good reason I should only care or vastly weight humans over animals through some moral obligation. I don’t currently believe that but I’m hedging for it, because I could be convinced.
I realise now I’m basically saying I 90% agree that rolling a D20 for 3+ is a good idea, when it would be fair to also interpret it that I 100% agree it’s a good idea ex ante.
(Also my first comment was terrible, sorry I just wanted to get on the board on priors before reading the debate)