And I apologize for the confusion. I am, as you suggested, still trying to figure out my real position, and coming up with arguments on the spot that mix my internal sentiments with external pressures in ways that may seem incoherent.
Thank you for acknowledging that.
Considering or trying on different arguments is good, but I’d suggest doing it explicitly. For example, instead of “I meant X, not Y” (unless that’s true), “How about new-argument X?” is a totally valid thing to say, even if having (or appearing to have) pinned-down beliefs might be higher status or something.
Some object-level responses:
I should clarify, I am not saying we should pretend to have beliefs closer to theirs. I am saying that having such divergent views will make it harder to recruit them as EAs. It would therefore be better for EA as a movement if our views didn’t diverge as much.
This sounds like it’s saying: “to make it easier to recruit others, our beliefs should genuinely be closer to theirs.” I agree that would not entail lying about one’s beliefs to the public, but I think that would require EAs lying to themselves[1] to make their beliefs genuinely closer to what’s popular.
For one’s beliefs about what is true to be influenced by anything other than evidence it might be or not be true, is an influence which will tend to diverge from what is true, by definition.
I don’t think EAs should (somehow subtly) lie to themselves. If I imagine the EA which does this, it’s actually really scary, in ways I find hard to articulate.
And I think there can be epistemic compromise. You give the benefit of the doubt to other views by admitting your uncertainty and allowing the possibility that you’re wrong, or they’re wrong, and we could all be wrong
Sure, there can be epistemic compromise in that other sense, where you know there’s some probability of your reasoning being incorrect, or where you have no reason to expect yourself to be correct over someone who is as good at reasoning and also trying to form correct beliefs.
But it’s not something done because ‘we need popular support to get things done’.
Many apparent cognitive biases can be explained by a strong desire to look good and a limited ability to lie; in general, our conscious beliefs don’t seem to be exclusively or even mostly optimized to track reality. If we take this view seriously, I think it has significant implications for how we ought to reason and behave.
Yeah, I should probably retract the “we need popular support to get things done” line of reasoning.
I think lying to myself is probably, on reflection, something I do to avoid actually lying to others, as described in that link in the footnote. I kind of decide that a belief is “plausible” and then give it some conditional weight, a kind of “humour the idea and give it the benefit of the doubt”. It’s kind of a technicality thing that I do because I’m personally very against outright lying, so I’ve developed a kind of alternative way of fudging to avoid hurt feelings and such.
This is likely related to the “spin” concept that I adopted from political debates. The idea of “spin” to me is to tell the truth from an angle that encourages a perception that is favourable to the argument I am trying to make. It’s something of a habit, and most probably epistemically highly questionable and something I should stop doing.
I think I also use these things to try to take an intentionally more optimistic outlook and be more positive in order to ensure best performance at tasks at hand. If you think you can succeed, you will try harder and often succeed where if you’d been pessimistic you’d have failed due to lack of resolve. This is an adaptive response, but it admittedly sacrifices some accuracy about the actual situation.
For one’s beliefs about what is true to be influenced by anything other than evidence it might be or not be true, is an influence which will tend to diverge from what is true, by definition.
Though, what if I consider the fact that many people have independently reached a certain belief to itself be evidence that that belief might be true?
Though, what if I consider the fact that many people have independently reached a certain belief to itself be evidence that that belief might be true?
that is a form of evidence. if people’s beliefs all had some truly-independent probability of being correct, then in a large society it would become extreme evidence for any belief that >50% of people have, but it’s not actually true that people’s beliefs are independent.
human minds are similar, and human cultural environments are similar. often people’s conclusions aren’t actually independent, and often they’re not actually conclusions but are unquestioned beliefs internalized from their environment (parents, peers, etc). often people make the same logical mistakes, because they are similar entities (humans).
you still have to reason about that premise, “peoples conclusions about <subject> are independent”, as you would any other belief.
and there are known ways large groups of humans can internalize the same beliefs, with detectable signs like ‘becoming angry when the idea is questioned’.
(maybe usually humans will be right, because most beliefs are about low level mundane things like ‘it will be day tomorrow’. but the cases where we’d like to have such a prior are exactly those non-mundane special cases where human consensus can easily be wrong.)
Thank you for acknowledging that.
Considering or trying on different arguments is good, but I’d suggest doing it explicitly. For example, instead of “I meant X, not Y” (unless that’s true), “How about new-argument X?” is a totally valid thing to say, even if having (or appearing to have) pinned-down beliefs might be higher status or something.
Some object-level responses:
This sounds like it’s saying: “to make it easier to recruit others, our beliefs should genuinely be closer to theirs.” I agree that would not entail lying about one’s beliefs to the public, but I think that would require EAs lying to themselves[1] to make their beliefs genuinely closer to what’s popular.
For one’s beliefs about what is true to be influenced by anything other than evidence it might be or not be true, is an influence which will tend to diverge from what is true, by definition.
I don’t think EAs should (somehow subtly) lie to themselves. If I imagine the EA which does this, it’s actually really scary, in ways I find hard to articulate.
Sure, there can be epistemic compromise in that other sense, where you know there’s some probability of your reasoning being incorrect, or where you have no reason to expect yourself to be correct over someone who is as good at reasoning and also trying to form correct beliefs.
But it’s not something done because ‘we need popular support to get things done’.
this reminded me of this: If we can’t lie to others, we will lie to ourselves by Paul Christiano.
Yeah, I should probably retract the “we need popular support to get things done” line of reasoning.
I think lying to myself is probably, on reflection, something I do to avoid actually lying to others, as described in that link in the footnote. I kind of decide that a belief is “plausible” and then give it some conditional weight, a kind of “humour the idea and give it the benefit of the doubt”. It’s kind of a technicality thing that I do because I’m personally very against outright lying, so I’ve developed a kind of alternative way of fudging to avoid hurt feelings and such.
This is likely related to the “spin” concept that I adopted from political debates. The idea of “spin” to me is to tell the truth from an angle that encourages a perception that is favourable to the argument I am trying to make. It’s something of a habit, and most probably epistemically highly questionable and something I should stop doing.
I think I also use these things to try to take an intentionally more optimistic outlook and be more positive in order to ensure best performance at tasks at hand. If you think you can succeed, you will try harder and often succeed where if you’d been pessimistic you’d have failed due to lack of resolve. This is an adaptive response, but it admittedly sacrifices some accuracy about the actual situation.
Though, what if I consider the fact that many people have independently reached a certain belief to itself be evidence that that belief might be true?
that is a form of evidence. if people’s beliefs all had some truly-independent probability of being correct, then in a large society it would become extreme evidence for any belief that >50% of people have, but it’s not actually true that people’s beliefs are independent.
human minds are similar, and human cultural environments are similar. often people’s conclusions aren’t actually independent, and often they’re not actually conclusions but are unquestioned beliefs internalized from their environment (parents, peers, etc). often people make the same logical mistakes, because they are similar entities (humans).
you still have to reason about that premise, “peoples conclusions about <subject> are independent”, as you would any other belief.
and there are known ways large groups of humans can internalize the same beliefs, with detectable signs like ‘becoming angry when the idea is questioned’.
(maybe usually humans will be right, because most beliefs are about low level mundane things like ‘it will be day tomorrow’. but the cases where we’d like to have such a prior are exactly those non-mundane special cases where human consensus can easily be wrong.)
This answer feels like a very honest reflection on oneself, I like it.