On a separate note: I currently don’t think that epistemic deference as a concept makes sense, because defying a consensus has two effects that are often roughly the same size: it means you’re more likely to be wrong, and it means you’re creating more value if right.
I don’t fully follow this explanation, but if it’s true that defying a consensus has two effects that are the same size, doesn’t that suggest you can choose any consensus-defying action because the EV is the same regardless, since the likelihood of you being wrong is ~cancelled out by the expected value of being right?
Also the “value if right” doesn’t seem likely to be only modulated by the extent to which you are defying the consensus?
Example: If you are flying a plane and considering a new way of landing a plane that goes against what 99% of pilots think is reasonable , the “value if right” might be much smaller than the negative effects of “value if wrong”. It’s also not clear to me that if you now decide to take an landing approach that was against what 99.9% of pilots think was reasonable you will 10x your “value if right” compared to the 99% action.
I don’t fully follow this explanation, but if it’s true that defying a consensus has two effects that are the same size, doesn’t that suggest you can choose any consensus-defying action because the EV is the same regardless, since the likelihood of you being wrong is ~cancelled out by the expected value of being right?
Also the “value if right” doesn’t seem likely to be only modulated by the extent to which you are defying the consensus?
Example:
If you are flying a plane and considering a new way of landing a plane that goes against what 99% of pilots think is reasonable , the “value if right” might be much smaller than the negative effects of “value if wrong”. It’s also not clear to me that if you now decide to take an landing approach that was against what 99.9% of pilots think was reasonable you will 10x your “value if right” compared to the 99% action.