At least for me the answer is yes, I think the arguments for the hinge of history are pretty compelling, and I have not seen any compelling counterarguments. I think the comments on Will’s post (which is the only post I know arguing against the hinge of history hypothesis) are basically correct and remove almost all basis I can see for Will’s arguments. See also Buck’s post on the same topic.
At least for me the answer is yes, I think the arguments for the hinge of history are pretty compelling, and I have not seen any compelling counterarguments. I think the comments on Will’s post (which is the only post I know arguing against the hinge of history hypothesis) are basically correct and remove almost all basis I can see for Will’s arguments. See also Buck’s post on the same topic.