Executive summary: A recent study using IVF data from Denmark found no long-term income penalty for women who have children, challenging previous research suggesting a persistent “child penalty” on women’s earnings.
Key points:
The study used the random success or failure of first IVF attempts to isolate the causal effect of childbirth on women’s incomes over 25 years.
Women who succeeded on their first IVF attempt had more children but did not experience persistently lower earnings compared to those who failed.
The findings contradict previous “event study” analyses that found large, long-lasting earnings penalties for mothers.
The authors argue their method avoids biases in event studies by using more plausibly random variation in fertility.
External validity is uncertain—results may not generalize beyond Denmark’s generous policies or higher-income, older IVF mothers.
If valid, it suggests cultural factors beyond career costs drive low fertility, complicating policy responses.
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Executive summary: A recent study using IVF data from Denmark found no long-term income penalty for women who have children, challenging previous research suggesting a persistent “child penalty” on women’s earnings.
Key points:
The study used the random success or failure of first IVF attempts to isolate the causal effect of childbirth on women’s incomes over 25 years.
Women who succeeded on their first IVF attempt had more children but did not experience persistently lower earnings compared to those who failed.
The findings contradict previous “event study” analyses that found large, long-lasting earnings penalties for mothers.
The authors argue their method avoids biases in event studies by using more plausibly random variation in fertility.
External validity is uncertain—results may not generalize beyond Denmark’s generous policies or higher-income, older IVF mothers.
If valid, it suggests cultural factors beyond career costs drive low fertility, complicating policy responses.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.