This is interesting, thanks. Do you plan on making funding/people allocation estimates using this methodology in the future? If so perhaps it’d be worthwhile for us to expand Metaculus forecasting on future EA resources to include questions on future funding/people allocation, with the aim of informing efforts to address the gap between ideal future portfolios and expectations for what future portfolios will actually be.
This is interesting, thanks. Do you plan on making funding/people allocation estimates using this methodology in the future? If so perhaps it’d be worthwhile for us to expand Metaculus forecasting on future EA resources to include questions on future funding/people allocation, with the aim of informing efforts to address the gap between ideal future portfolios and expectations for what future portfolios will actually be.
My hope is that someone with more time to do it carefully will be able to do this in the future.
Having on-going metaculus forecasts sounds great too.