I haven’t read it, but I feel like there’s something missing from the summary here, which is like “how much AI risk reduction you get per dollar”. That has to be modeled somehow, right? What did the author assume for that?
If we step outside the economic model into reality, I think reducing AI x-risk is hard, and as evidence we can look around the field and notice that many people trying to reduce AI x-risk are pointing their fingers at many other people trying to reduce AI x-risk, with the former saying that the latter have been making AI x-risk worse rather than better via their poorly-thought-through interventions.
If some institution or government decided to spend $100B per year on AI x-risk (haha), I would be very concerned that this tsunami of money would wind up net negative, leaving us in a worse situation than if the institution / government had spent $0 instead. But of course it would depend a lot on the decisionmakers and processes etc.
Here’s the PDF.
I haven’t read it, but I feel like there’s something missing from the summary here, which is like “how much AI risk reduction you get per dollar”. That has to be modeled somehow, right? What did the author assume for that?
If we step outside the economic model into reality, I think reducing AI x-risk is hard, and as evidence we can look around the field and notice that many people trying to reduce AI x-risk are pointing their fingers at many other people trying to reduce AI x-risk, with the former saying that the latter have been making AI x-risk worse rather than better via their poorly-thought-through interventions.
If some institution or government decided to spend $100B per year on AI x-risk (haha), I would be very concerned that this tsunami of money would wind up net negative, leaving us in a worse situation than if the institution / government had spent $0 instead. But of course it would depend a lot on the decisionmakers and processes etc.