Perhaps another EA donor could sign something guaranteeing to reimburse FF grantees in the event of clawbacks?
I imagine a lot of people are now in the awkward situation of having money in their bank that they want to spend on projects but are hesitant to because it might be clawed back at some unknown time in the next 2 years.
Counter-argument: With less EA funding now available the bar on grant applications needs to be shifted higher, so all FF grantees shouldn’t be funded now. The money could be spent better elsewhere.
Counter-counter-argument: If you’re insuring pre-vetted grants (so no additional work for grant evaluators), there’s only a 10-30% chance (wild guess) that you pay out on the insurance guarantees, possibly several years down the line and you get second order positive effects via encouraging future EA project founders to take risks… maybe those multiples shift these clawback guarantees back above the line?
(Disclosure: I’m a FF grant recipient so very biased)
EDIT: I no longer endorse the idea above. One thing I hadn’t understood was that in this kind of situation preference and fraudulent transfer claims usually involve the two parties working out a settlement rather than litigating. Having a guarantee in place would change the dynamics of those negotiations.
Probably, although I imagine this would be a custom product for a charitable entity. The closest concepts I can think of are trade credit insurance [https://icisa.org/trade-credit-insurance/] and credit default swaps.
Are you thinking that the community should consider collectively insuring against the risk of a megadonor going underwater in the future? That would be an interesting idea. I am doubtful that an insurer would be interested in writing such a policy for a single grantee seeking protection for a single megadonor in the low millions or below—too much due dilligence would be necessary for the potential profit.
Is there an insurance product that covers clawbacks?
Perhaps another EA donor could sign something guaranteeing to reimburse FF grantees in the event of clawbacks?
I imagine a lot of people are now in the awkward situation of having money in their bank that they want to spend on projects but are hesitant to because it might be clawed back at some unknown time in the next 2 years.
Counter-argument: With less EA funding now available the bar on grant applications needs to be shifted higher, so all FF grantees shouldn’t be funded now. The money could be spent better elsewhere.
Counter-counter-argument: If you’re insuring pre-vetted grants (so no additional work for grant evaluators), there’s only a 10-30% chance (wild guess) that you pay out on the insurance guarantees, possibly several years down the line and you get second order positive effects via encouraging future EA project founders to take risks… maybe those multiples shift these clawback guarantees back above the line?
(Disclosure: I’m a FF grant recipient so very biased)
EDIT: I no longer endorse the idea above. One thing I hadn’t understood was that in this kind of situation preference and fraudulent transfer claims usually involve the two parties working out a settlement rather than litigating. Having a guarantee in place would change the dynamics of those negotiations.
The problem is that a lot of money was given out, so only a very few people could do this.
Probably, although I imagine this would be a custom product for a charitable entity. The closest concepts I can think of are trade credit insurance [https://icisa.org/trade-credit-insurance/] and credit default swaps.
Are you thinking that the community should consider collectively insuring against the risk of a megadonor going underwater in the future? That would be an interesting idea. I am doubtful that an insurer would be interested in writing such a policy for a single grantee seeking protection for a single megadonor in the low millions or below—too much due dilligence would be necessary for the potential profit.
Yeah something like that. Just trying to think of a way to make a market out of due-diligence.