For GiveWell and its top charities, excluding GiveDirectly, I think a lot depends on whether you expect GiveWell to have more RFMF than funds anytime in the near future. The obvious question is why wouldn’t OpenPhil fill in the gaps. Maybe if GiveWell’s RFMF expands enough then OpenPhil won’t want to spend that much on GiveWell-level interventions?
GiveWell gives some estimates here (Rollover Funding FAQ | GiveWell) saying they expect to have capacity to spend down their funds in 2023, but they admit they’re conservative on the funding side and ambitious on the RFMF side.
If GiveWell will actually be funding constrained within a few years, I feel pretty good about donating to them, effectively letting them hold the money in OpenPhil investments until they identify spending opportunities at the 5-10x GD level (especially where donating now yields benefits like matching).
If they’re ultimately going to get everything 5x+ funded by OpenPhil no matter what, then your argument that I’m donating peanuts to the huge pile of OpenPhil or Moskovitz money seems right to me.
GiveWell does say “If we’re able to raise funds significantly faster than we’ve forecast, we will prioritize finding additional RFMF to meet those funds.” So it sounds like they’re almost-committing to not letting donor money get funged by OpenPhil for more than a few years.
For GiveWell and its top charities, excluding GiveDirectly, I think a lot depends on whether you expect GiveWell to have more RFMF than funds anytime in the near future. The obvious question is why wouldn’t OpenPhil fill in the gaps. Maybe if GiveWell’s RFMF expands enough then OpenPhil won’t want to spend that much on GiveWell-level interventions?
GiveWell gives some estimates here (Rollover Funding FAQ | GiveWell) saying they expect to have capacity to spend down their funds in 2023, but they admit they’re conservative on the funding side and ambitious on the RFMF side.
If GiveWell will actually be funding constrained within a few years, I feel pretty good about donating to them, effectively letting them hold the money in OpenPhil investments until they identify spending opportunities at the 5-10x GD level (especially where donating now yields benefits like matching).
If they’re ultimately going to get everything 5x+ funded by OpenPhil no matter what, then your argument that I’m donating peanuts to the huge pile of OpenPhil or Moskovitz money seems right to me.
GiveWell does say “If we’re able to raise funds significantly faster than we’ve forecast, we will prioritize finding additional RFMF to meet those funds.” So it sounds like they’re almost-committing to not letting donor money get funged by OpenPhil for more than a few years.