Markets are made efficient by really smart people with deep expertise. Many EAs fit that description, and have historically achieved such returns doing trades/investments with a solid argument and without taking crazy risks.
Examples include: crypto arbitrage opportunities like these (without exposure to crypto markets), the Covid short, early crypto investments (high-risk, but returns were often >100x, implying very favorable risk-adjusted returns), prediction markets, meat alternatives.
Overall, most EA funders outperformed the market over the last 10 years, and they typically had pretty good arguments for their trades.
But I get your skepticism and also find it hard to believe (and would also be skeptical of such claims without further justification).
Also note that returns will get a lot lower once more capital is allocated in this way. It’s easy to make such returns on $100 million, but really
Markets are made efficient by really smart people with deep expertise. Many EAs fit that description, and have historically achieved such returns doing trades/investments with a solid argument and without taking crazy risks.
Examples include: crypto arbitrage opportunities like these (without exposure to crypto markets), the Covid short, early crypto investments (high-risk, but returns were often >100x, implying very favorable risk-adjusted returns), prediction markets, meat alternatives.
Overall, most EA funders outperformed the market over the last 10 years, and they typically had pretty good arguments for their trades.
But I get your skepticism and also find it hard to believe (and would also be skeptical of such claims without further justification).
Also note that returns will get a lot lower once more capital is allocated in this way. It’s easy to make such returns on $100 million, but really
(Made some edits)