Forgive me if I’m thick, but isn’t this equivalent to saying the elasticities of supply and demand for offense and defense rarely change over time? The price might go up or down, factor markets might change, but ratios remain stable?
This makes sense, but I worry it is not Hayekian enough. People are the ones who respond to price changes; nations are the ones who respond to price changes in the cost of defense, deterrence, and attack. In the long run, there is equilibrium. But in the short run, everyone is making adjustments all the time and the costs fluctuate wildly, as does who has the upper hand.
The Athenians have the upper hand until Spartans figure out siege warfare, the 11th century nobles of Aragon and Barcelona are consolidated and made more subservient to the King-count Jaume II by his monopoly on trebuchets, the Mongols had logistics advances that gave them a 60 year moat.
The question isn’t whether there is equilibrium, but how long until we get there, which equilibrium is it, and what mischief is caused in the meantime. Human action and choices determines the answer to these questions.
I was going to say something similar, based on international relations theory (realism). The optimal size of a military power unit changes over time, but equilibria can exist.
In the shorter term, though, threshold effects are possible, particularly when the optimal size grows and the number of powers shrinks. We appear to be in the midst of a consolidation cycle now, as cybersecurity and a variety of internet technologies have strong economies of scale.
Forgive me if I’m thick, but isn’t this equivalent to saying the elasticities of supply and demand for offense and defense rarely change over time? The price might go up or down, factor markets might change, but ratios remain stable?
This makes sense, but I worry it is not Hayekian enough. People are the ones who respond to price changes; nations are the ones who respond to price changes in the cost of defense, deterrence, and attack. In the long run, there is equilibrium. But in the short run, everyone is making adjustments all the time and the costs fluctuate wildly, as does who has the upper hand.
The Athenians have the upper hand until Spartans figure out siege warfare, the 11th century nobles of Aragon and Barcelona are consolidated and made more subservient to the King-count Jaume II by his monopoly on trebuchets, the Mongols had logistics advances that gave them a 60 year moat.
The question isn’t whether there is equilibrium, but how long until we get there, which equilibrium is it, and what mischief is caused in the meantime. Human action and choices determines the answer to these questions.
I was going to say something similar, based on international relations theory (realism). The optimal size of a military power unit changes over time, but equilibria can exist.
In the shorter term, though, threshold effects are possible, particularly when the optimal size grows and the number of powers shrinks. We appear to be in the midst of a consolidation cycle now, as cybersecurity and a variety of internet technologies have strong economies of scale.