Executive summary: Despite intuitive predictions that major technological advances shift the offense-defense balance, historical data shows remarkable stability even across massive technological change.
Key points:
Debates about future AI often hinge on predictions it will advantage offense or defense, but evidence contradicts this.
Per-capita deaths from war show no long-term trend from 1400-2013 despite major tech advances.
Cybersecurity threats have not radically changed despite exponential growth in computing since the 1970s.
Biological attacks have not increased alongside rapid advances and cost reductions in genomics and biotech.
Stability may stem from actors needing both offense and defense, making them complements not substitutes.
AI will still drive massive change, but likely not via offense-defense imbalance upsets.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, andcontact us if you have feedback.
Executive summary: Despite intuitive predictions that major technological advances shift the offense-defense balance, historical data shows remarkable stability even across massive technological change.
Key points:
Debates about future AI often hinge on predictions it will advantage offense or defense, but evidence contradicts this.
Per-capita deaths from war show no long-term trend from 1400-2013 despite major tech advances.
Cybersecurity threats have not radically changed despite exponential growth in computing since the 1970s.
Biological attacks have not increased alongside rapid advances and cost reductions in genomics and biotech.
Stability may stem from actors needing both offense and defense, making them complements not substitutes.
AI will still drive massive change, but likely not via offense-defense imbalance upsets.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.