Stephen Van Evera [1] argues that for purposes of explaining the outbreak of war, what’s most important is not what the objective o/d balance is (he thinks it usually favours the defence), but rather what states believe it is. If they believe it favours the offence (as VE and some other scholars argue that they did before World War I), war is more likely.
It seems as if perceptions should matter less in the case of cyberattacks. Whereas a government is unlikely to launch a major war unless it thinks either that it has good prospects of success or that it faces near-certain defeat if it doesn’t, the costs of a failed cyberattack are much lower.
Stephen Van Evera [1] argues that for purposes of explaining the outbreak of war, what’s most important is not what the objective o/d balance is (he thinks it usually favours the defence), but rather what states believe it is. If they believe it favours the offence (as VE and some other scholars argue that they did before World War I), war is more likely.
It seems as if perceptions should matter less in the case of cyberattacks. Whereas a government is unlikely to launch a major war unless it thinks either that it has good prospects of success or that it faces near-certain defeat if it doesn’t, the costs of a failed cyberattack are much lower.
(https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/22/4/5/11594/Offense-Defense-and-the-Causes-of-War)