Will AGI development be restricted by physics and semiconductor wafer?
I don’t know how AI was developing so fast in the history, but some said it’s because the Moore’s Law of seniconductor wafer. If the development of semiconductor wafer comes to an end because of physical limitations l, can AI still grow exponentially?
Someargue that the computational demands of deep learning coupled with the end of Moore’s Law will limit AI progress. The most convincing counterargument in my opinion is that algorithms could become much more efficient in using compute. Historically, every 9 months algorithmic improvements have halved the amount of compute necessary to achieve a given level of performance in image classification. AI is currently being used to improve the rate of AI progress (including to improve hardware), meaning full automation could further speed up AI progress.
Will AGI development be restricted by physics and semiconductor wafer? I don’t know how AI was developing so fast in the history, but some said it’s because the Moore’s Law of seniconductor wafer. If the development of semiconductor wafer comes to an end because of physical limitations l, can AI still grow exponentially?
Some argue that the computational demands of deep learning coupled with the end of Moore’s Law will limit AI progress. The most convincing counterargument in my opinion is that algorithms could become much more efficient in using compute. Historically, every 9 months algorithmic improvements have halved the amount of compute necessary to achieve a given level of performance in image classification. AI is currently being used to improve the rate of AI progress (including to improve hardware), meaning full automation could further speed up AI progress.