Hello, I am new to AI Alignment Policy research and am curious to learn about what the most reliable forecasts on the pace of AGI development are. So far what I have read points to the fact that it is just very difficult to predict when we will see the arrival of TAI. Why is that?
Hello, I am new to AI Alignment Policy research and am curious to learn about what the most reliable forecasts on the pace of AGI development are. So far what I have read points to the fact that it is just very difficult to predict when we will see the arrival of TAI. Why is that?
Forecasting new technologies is always difficult, so personally I have a lot of uncertainty about the future of AI, but I think this post is a good overview of some considerations: https://www.cold-takes.com/where-ai-forecasting-stands-today/