Note that I’ve only read a few of these, so no guarantees as to quality/relevance. Also note that these are generally (but not always) more on the qualitative/speculative side than quantitative/empirical.
Ah yes, I’d recommend starting with Karnofsky’s posts, in particular “This Can’t Go On”. (For that one and all the others, I recommend reading the summary (if there is one) or skimming a bit first as I expect not all of them to be worth your time.)
I compiled a list of (mostly EA-related) writings on AI and economic growth in case it’s of interest:
Karnofsky: This Can’t Go On, More on “multiple world-size economies per atom” and A note on historical economic growth
Trammell and Korinek: Economic Growth under Transformative AI (pdf)
Hanson: Limits to Growth
Kokotajlo: Against GDP as a metric for timelines and takeoff speeds
Wentworth: What Do GDP Growth Curves Really Mean?
Bavarian, aogara: Argument against 20% GDP growth from AI within 10 years [Linkpost]
Patel: This Can Go On—Pt 1: The Simmer Scenario and This Can Go On—Pt 2: Against intuitions about crazy growth
Manheim & Sandberg: What is the upper limit of value? (pdf)
Alexander: 1960: The Year The Singularity Was Cancelled
Davidson: Report on Whether AI Could Drive Explosive Economic Growth
Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb: Artificial Intelligence
and Economic Growth (pdf)
Note that I’ve only read a few of these, so no guarantees as to quality/relevance. Also note that these are generally (but not always) more on the qualitative/speculative side than quantitative/empirical.
Looks great, thanks! Could you please recommend the one which is particularly interesting/a good place to start? :)
Ah yes, I’d recommend starting with Karnofsky’s posts, in particular “This Can’t Go On”. (For that one and all the others, I recommend reading the summary (if there is one) or skimming a bit first as I expect not all of them to be worth your time.)