I appreciate the discussion here and am curating this post. (Thanks for getting the ball rolling!) Some related things I think I’d like to see:
More comparisons between the options discussed here (e.g. how good are some pro-immigration options, or even an idealized pro-immigration option, relative to something like GiveDirectly, targeted agricultural productivity research/investment, or governance improvements?)
More discussion about and estimates of the actual value of donations aimed at boosting economic growth
Donations vs. other approaches
E.g. maybe the bottleneck tends to be in specialized knowledge (e.g. research based on a deep understanding of key economic factors for LMICs) or other kinds of “direct work” that might be hard to buy via more funding
Or maybe it’s hard for people from outside major LMICs to fund the most promising work
Elie Hassenfeld: “We’ve spoken a number of times with Lant Pritchett, who is a leading academic proponent of these ideas. We’ve looked for specific organisations we could support that are focused on growth specifically. [...] we looked at that level and we’re not super optimistic about the opportunities that we considered. [...] It’s also a question of how you would attack this philanthropically — like I also wonder how neglected this space truly is. There’s the World Bank, IMF, there’s other institutions. There are the Washington think tanks that are definitely focused on economic growth, and academics who focus on macroeconomics and how we can improve low-income country conditions. [...] I think my story would be more that we do know some things that countries should really avoid. I think people are working on that. This is not a totally neglected space. Then there is some degree of disagreement among the different groups working on this about what the right approaches are. Some of the evidence for that is a disagreement about the extent to which past efforts have been effective and to what extent. [...] It strikes me that there’s more of a risk of doing harm here, by assuming that we do have the answer and pushing economic policy in a certain direction. [...] I also think there are some more detailed things. I think Alexander Berger actually raises this in the comments, that when you’re modelling the effect of GDP, you might want to look at log GDP instead of straight GDP. That is a big effect as you look at the big benefits of the very big numbers. I suspect those are smaller, in terms of their effect on the overall argument, but important nonetheless.
Note that I think AI progress might go catastrophically and I find it hard to think about the potential benefits while still considering potential harms. I really like The costs of caution.
I appreciate the discussion here and am curating this post. (Thanks for getting the ball rolling!) Some related things I think I’d like to see:
More comparisons between the options discussed here (e.g. how good are some pro-immigration options, or even an idealized pro-immigration option, relative to something like GiveDirectly, targeted agricultural productivity research/investment, or governance improvements?)
More discussion about and estimates of the actual value of donations aimed at boosting economic growth
Donations vs. other approaches
E.g. maybe the bottleneck tends to be in specialized knowledge (e.g. research based on a deep understanding of key economic factors for LMICs) or other kinds of “direct work” that might be hard to buy via more funding
Or maybe it’s hard for people from outside major LMICs to fund the most promising work
How much it’s worth prioritizing work in this area at all (and how to approach that) — e.g. a continuation of the discussion in this podcast (skip to section):
Elie Hassenfeld: “We’ve spoken a number of times with Lant Pritchett, who is a leading academic proponent of these ideas. We’ve looked for specific organisations we could support that are focused on growth specifically. [...] we looked at that level and we’re not super optimistic about the opportunities that we considered. [...] It’s also a question of how you would attack this philanthropically — like I also wonder how neglected this space truly is. There’s the World Bank, IMF, there’s other institutions. There are the Washington think tanks that are definitely focused on economic growth, and academics who focus on macroeconomics and how we can improve low-income country conditions. [...] I think my story would be more that we do know some things that countries should really avoid. I think people are working on that. This is not a totally neglected space. Then there is some degree of disagreement among the different groups working on this about what the right approaches are. Some of the evidence for that is a disagreement about the extent to which past efforts have been effective and to what extent. [...] It strikes me that there’s more of a risk of doing harm here, by assuming that we do have the answer and pushing economic policy in a certain direction. [...] I also think there are some more detailed things. I think Alexander Berger actually raises this in the comments, that when you’re modelling the effect of GDP, you might want to look at log GDP instead of straight GDP. That is a big effect as you look at the big benefits of the very big numbers. I suspect those are smaller, in terms of their effect on the overall argument, but important nonetheless.
Discussion of the implications of forecasted AI progress, e.g. more like Could AI accelerate economic growth? (or this report or this discussion—both from 2021)
More generally, I’m interested in more like: How does AI progress affect other EA cause areas?
Note that I think AI progress might go catastrophically and I find it hard to think about the potential benefits while still considering potential harms. I really like The costs of caution.