As for “epistemic health,” my update somewhat after ~6mo of forecasting was: “ugh, why some many people at GJO/Foretell are so bad to terribly bad. I am not doing anything notably high-effort, why am/are I/we doing so well?” Which made me notably less deferent to community consensus and less modest generally (as in modest epistemology). I want to put some appropriate qualifiers but it feels like too much effort. I judge this update as a significant personal ~benefit.
As for “epistemic health,” my update somewhat after ~6mo of forecasting was: “ugh, why some many people at GJO/Foretell are so bad to terribly bad. I am not doing anything notably high-effort, why am/are I/we doing so well?” Which made me notably less deferent to community consensus and less modest generally (as in modest epistemology). I want to put some appropriate qualifiers but it feels like too much effort. I judge this update as a significant personal ~benefit.