The analysis I linked to isn’t conclusive on longtermism being the clear winner if only considering the short-term. Under certain assumptions it won’t be the best. Therefore if only considering the short-term, many may choose not to give to longtermist interventions. Indeed this is what we see in the EA movement where global health still reigns supreme as the highest priority cause area.
What most longtermist analysis does is argue that if you consider the far future, longtermism then becomes the clear winner (e.g. here). In short, significantly more value is at stake with reducing existential risk because now you care about enabling far future beings to live and thrive. If longtermism is the clear winner then we shouldn’t see a movement that clearly prioritises global health, we should see a movement that clearly prioritises longtermist causes. This would be a big shift from the status quo.
As for your final point, I think I understand what you / the authors were saying now. I don’t think we have no idea what the far future effects of interventions like medical research are. We can make a general argument it will be good in expectation because it will help us deal with future disease which will help us reduce future suffering. Could that be wrong—sure—but we’re just talking about expectational value. With longtermist interventions, the argument is the far future effects are significantly positive and large in expectation. The simplest explanation is that future wellbeing matters, so reducing extinction risk seems good because we increase the probability of there being some welfare in the future rather than none.
It isn’t a clear winner but neither were any of the other options and it was cost competitive.
>What most longtermist analysis does is argue that if you consider the far future, longtermism then becomes the clear winner (e.g. here).
In this thread Toby Ord has said that he and most longtermists don’t support ‘strong determinism’. Although he hasn’t elucidated what the mainstream view of longtermism is.
We can make a general argument it will be good in expectation because it will help us deal with future disease which will help us reduce future suffering.
With longtermist interventions, the argument is the far future effects are significantly positive and large in expectation.
If all the argument amounts to is that it will be good in expectation, well we can say that about a lot of cause areas. What we need is an argument for why it would be good in expectation, compared to all these other cause areas.
>The simplest explanation is that future wellbeing matters, so reducing extinction risk seems good because we increase the probability of there being some welfare in the future rather than none.
Future well being does matter but focusing on existential risk doesn’t lead to greater future well-being necessarily. It leads to humans being alive. If the future is filled with human suffering, then focus on existential risk could be one of the worst focus areas.
What we need is an argument for why it would be good in expectation, compared to all these other cause areas.
Yeah the strong longtermism paper elucidates this argument. I also provide a short sketch of the argument here. At its core is the expected vastness of the future that allows longtermism to beat other areas. The argument for “normal” longtermism i.e. not “strong” is pretty much the same structure.
Future well being does matter but focusing on existential risk doesn’t lead to greater future well-being necessarily. It leads to humans being alive. If the future is filled with human suffering, then focus on existential risk could be one of the worst focus areas.
Yes that’s true. Again we’re dealing with expectations and most people expect the future to be good if we manage not to go extinct. But it’s also worth noting that reducing extinction risk is just one class of reducing existential risk. If you think the future will be bad, you can work to improve the future conditional on us being alive or, in theory, you can work to make us go extinct (but this is of course a bit out there). Improving the future conditional on us being alive might involve tackling climate change, improving institutions, or aligning AI.
And, to reiterate, while we focus on these areas to some extent now, I don’t think we focus on them as much as we would in a world where society at large accepts longtermism.
The analysis I linked to isn’t conclusive on longtermism being the clear winner if only considering the short-term. Under certain assumptions it won’t be the best. Therefore if only considering the short-term, many may choose not to give to longtermist interventions. Indeed this is what we see in the EA movement where global health still reigns supreme as the highest priority cause area.
What most longtermist analysis does is argue that if you consider the far future, longtermism then becomes the clear winner (e.g. here). In short, significantly more value is at stake with reducing existential risk because now you care about enabling far future beings to live and thrive. If longtermism is the clear winner then we shouldn’t see a movement that clearly prioritises global health, we should see a movement that clearly prioritises longtermist causes. This would be a big shift from the status quo.
As for your final point, I think I understand what you / the authors were saying now. I don’t think we have no idea what the far future effects of interventions like medical research are. We can make a general argument it will be good in expectation because it will help us deal with future disease which will help us reduce future suffering. Could that be wrong—sure—but we’re just talking about expectational value. With longtermist interventions, the argument is the far future effects are significantly positive and large in expectation. The simplest explanation is that future wellbeing matters, so reducing extinction risk seems good because we increase the probability of there being some welfare in the future rather than none.
It isn’t a clear winner but neither were any of the other options and it was cost competitive.
>What most longtermist analysis does is argue that if you consider the far future, longtermism then becomes the clear winner (e.g. here).
In this thread Toby Ord has said that he and most longtermists don’t support ‘strong determinism’. Although he hasn’t elucidated what the mainstream view of longtermism is.
If all the argument amounts to is that it will be good in expectation, well we can say that about a lot of cause areas. What we need is an argument for why it would be good in expectation, compared to all these other cause areas.
>The simplest explanation is that future wellbeing matters, so reducing extinction risk seems good because we increase the probability of there being some welfare in the future rather than none.
Future well being does matter but focusing on existential risk doesn’t lead to greater future well-being necessarily. It leads to humans being alive. If the future is filled with human suffering, then focus on existential risk could be one of the worst focus areas.
Yeah the strong longtermism paper elucidates this argument. I also provide a short sketch of the argument here. At its core is the expected vastness of the future that allows longtermism to beat other areas. The argument for “normal” longtermism i.e. not “strong” is pretty much the same structure.
Yes that’s true. Again we’re dealing with expectations and most people expect the future to be good if we manage not to go extinct. But it’s also worth noting that reducing extinction risk is just one class of reducing existential risk. If you think the future will be bad, you can work to improve the future conditional on us being alive or, in theory, you can work to make us go extinct (but this is of course a bit out there). Improving the future conditional on us being alive might involve tackling climate change, improving institutions, or aligning AI.
And, to reiterate, while we focus on these areas to some extent now, I don’t think we focus on them as much as we would in a world where society at large accepts longtermism.