The idea of a prize for a spectacular breakthrough in the area of energy seems promising but I remain unconvinced that cold fusion, however repackaged, is the basket to put our eggs in here.
Cheap, high-capacity batteries which could be recharged arbitrarily many times could have as transformative an effect on our energy production and consumption as anew fuel source, by allowing a 100% renewable grid to be feasible, as well as making electric vehicles far more attractive. A breakthrough in high-temperature superconductivity could be similarly transformative.
I think sometimes it’s too easy to get caught up in the excitement of finding a highly neglected idea, and in doing so miss the fact that it may be highly neglected for extremely good reasons.
This a good illustration of why a prize in this space might add value.
The majority of people “remain unconvinced” about cold fusion and other forms of breakthrough energy, and they are statistically more likely to be right than wrong. The crux is to understand whether that makes the search for new energy “highly neglected for extremely good reasons”. How high would the probability of success need to be in order for that search to be worthwhile ? One-in-a-thousand, one-in-a-hundred, one-in-ten ?
A prize, in particular, is for the unconvinced. Would it not be reasonable for society to commit 5 mln$ (+ a success fee) for a 10% chance to find a new energy source ?
Energy storage technology is indeed also of interest, though of a different order than finding completely new energy sources. Moreover, the area of battery research is much less neglected, with billions flowing into the field every year.
The idea of a prize for a spectacular breakthrough in the area of energy seems promising but I remain unconvinced that cold fusion, however repackaged, is the basket to put our eggs in here.
Cheap, high-capacity batteries which could be recharged arbitrarily many times could have as transformative an effect on our energy production and consumption as anew fuel source, by allowing a 100% renewable grid to be feasible, as well as making electric vehicles far more attractive. A breakthrough in high-temperature superconductivity could be similarly transformative.
I think sometimes it’s too easy to get caught up in the excitement of finding a highly neglected idea, and in doing so miss the fact that it may be highly neglected for extremely good reasons.
This a good illustration of why a prize in this space might add value.
The majority of people “remain unconvinced” about cold fusion and other forms of breakthrough energy, and they are statistically more likely to be right than wrong. The crux is to understand whether that makes the search for new energy “highly neglected for extremely good reasons”. How high would the probability of success need to be in order for that search to be worthwhile ? One-in-a-thousand, one-in-a-hundred, one-in-ten ?
A prize, in particular, is for the unconvinced. Would it not be reasonable for society to commit 5 mln$ (+ a success fee) for a 10% chance to find a new energy source ?
Energy storage technology is indeed also of interest, though of a different order than finding completely new energy sources. Moreover, the area of battery research is much less neglected, with billions flowing into the field every year.