I think this post has a good list of reasons why diplomacy might be good. But I feel like a few things are missing, even if the post is just making the case to “consider” US diplomacy careers:
Arguments that this is the best thing some people can be doing with their careers. The best thing can be 100x better than a pretty good thing. Is this better than other paths towards policy careers? What about alternatives in other areas, like ops for EA orgs, GPR, or field-building?
The full story for impact. After gaining skills and marketability, what could someone do after foreign service? What important policies could be passed as a result? How does this ultimately reduce x-risk or create a huge number of QALYs?
Expected value calculations, especially since a heading claims there is high expected value. Assuming certain levels of talent and hard work, what’s the expected value of the funding directed to effective policies by starting with a diplomacy career? The estimate doesn’t need to be precise, but the current arguments in this post are consistent with the expected value being lower than many other things people could be doing with their careers.
For people who are struggling to switch over to policy from non-policy careers, the Foreign Service seems more accessible and provides a wider-range of exposure to EA issues than other entry or mid level policy options. For people already with established policy careers and a clear Theory of Impact, the Foreign Service might be a bit too open-ended (since you don’t get to select for your first two assignments). For people considering alternatives that are not directly related to government work (like ops for EA orgs, GPR, field-building), I’d still recommend at least applying if they’re in the minority of people for whom bureaucracy and constant moves isn’t a strong downside. Even having 1-2 more people excited about effective altruism in the Foreign Service would effectively double how many there are.
For example, if someone were an established expert in GPR research, the non-research work in the Foreign Service might not be a good career fit. If this GPR research expert really wanted to get into policy, I’d recommend more specialized strategic/subject-matter-expert roles in other parts of government unless they were very excited to join the Foreign Service specifically and are fine with waiting 10+ years to lobby for GPR within the government from a more senior position.
You asked about post-Foreign Service job options. Some go work at top tech companies as their strategic leads on different issues, join prestigious think tanks, start important think tanks from their US government knowledge (like Dan), become professors, etc. I have known of two who successfully ran for political office after. In other words, the Foreign Service is highly flexible. 80,000 Hours’ post on career capital sums the value of this up: “If you focus on building valuable, flexible career capital, then you’ll be able to have a more impactful, satisfying career too.”
You asked about important policies that can be passed or influenced and how this converts to QALYs. The State Department covers a huge array of important issues like setting/negotiating multilateral/international law, Biological Weapons Convention, building crisis communication channels, building norms regarding biosecurity, great power conflict, public health, etc. The QALYs are difficult to quantify but could be massive in the same way that economists’ work is competitive with RCT-backed interventions (EA Forum post: Growth and the Case against Randomista Development) Quote from their article: “China’s growth acceleration from 1977 onwards produced $14 trillion NPV in cumulative economic output. Thus, if the only thing the economics profession achieved in 50 years was to increase by 4 percentage points the probability that the Chinese government shifted to this new economic strategy, then it would have had greater economic benefits than the Graduation approach.” Diplomats are quite similar to economists and political advisors in their work, so could influence better norms for the long term future as well as better more equitable sustainable economic growth and stronger public health interventions.
I think this post has a good list of reasons why diplomacy might be good. But I feel like a few things are missing, even if the post is just making the case to “consider” US diplomacy careers:
Arguments that this is the best thing some people can be doing with their careers. The best thing can be 100x better than a pretty good thing. Is this better than other paths towards policy careers? What about alternatives in other areas, like ops for EA orgs, GPR, or field-building?
The full story for impact. After gaining skills and marketability, what could someone do after foreign service? What important policies could be passed as a result? How does this ultimately reduce x-risk or create a huge number of QALYs?
Expected value calculations, especially since a heading claims there is high expected value. Assuming certain levels of talent and hard work, what’s the expected value of the funding directed to effective policies by starting with a diplomacy career? The estimate doesn’t need to be precise, but the current arguments in this post are consistent with the expected value being lower than many other things people could be doing with their careers.
For people who are struggling to switch over to policy from non-policy careers, the Foreign Service seems more accessible and provides a wider-range of exposure to EA issues than other entry or mid level policy options. For people already with established policy careers and a clear Theory of Impact, the Foreign Service might be a bit too open-ended (since you don’t get to select for your first two assignments). For people considering alternatives that are not directly related to government work (like ops for EA orgs, GPR, field-building), I’d still recommend at least applying if they’re in the minority of people for whom bureaucracy and constant moves isn’t a strong downside. Even having 1-2 more people excited about effective altruism in the Foreign Service would effectively double how many there are.
For example, if someone were an established expert in GPR research, the non-research work in the Foreign Service might not be a good career fit. If this GPR research expert really wanted to get into policy, I’d recommend more specialized strategic/subject-matter-expert roles in other parts of government unless they were very excited to join the Foreign Service specifically and are fine with waiting 10+ years to lobby for GPR within the government from a more senior position.
You asked about post-Foreign Service job options. Some go work at top tech companies as their strategic leads on different issues, join prestigious think tanks, start important think tanks from their US government knowledge (like Dan), become professors, etc. I have known of two who successfully ran for political office after. In other words, the Foreign Service is highly flexible. 80,000 Hours’ post on career capital sums the value of this up: “If you focus on building valuable, flexible career capital, then you’ll be able to have a more impactful, satisfying career too.”
You asked about important policies that can be passed or influenced and how this converts to QALYs. The State Department covers a huge array of important issues like setting/negotiating multilateral/international law, Biological Weapons Convention, building crisis communication channels, building norms regarding biosecurity, great power conflict, public health, etc. The QALYs are difficult to quantify but could be massive in the same way that economists’ work is competitive with RCT-backed interventions (EA Forum post: Growth and the Case against Randomista Development) Quote from their article: “China’s growth acceleration from 1977 onwards produced $14 trillion NPV in cumulative economic output. Thus, if the only thing the economics profession achieved in 50 years was to increase by 4 percentage points the probability that the Chinese government shifted to this new economic strategy, then it would have had greater economic benefits than the Graduation approach.” Diplomats are quite similar to economists and political advisors in their work, so could influence better norms for the long term future as well as better more equitable sustainable economic growth and stronger public health interventions.