Executive summary: The Effective Institutions Project analyzes key scenarios and opportunities for influence in the upcoming Trump administration, identifying AI governance, US-China relations, and government efficiency reform as promising areas for positive impact despite significant risks.
Key points:
US federal government rated as world’s most important institution by experts across domains, with decisions in 2025-2028 potentially having unprecedented global impact.
Five key scenario areas tracked: AI governance (6/10), national security (6/10), global health (5/10), democracy/rule of law (4/10), and state capacity (5/10).
Top intervention opportunities: influencing AI policy to prevent unsafe acceleration, guiding US-China relations to avoid miscalculation-based conflicts, and steering government efficiency reforms.
Administration likely to be “high-variance” with both serious risks and reform opportunities due to Trump’s management style and anti-establishment stance.
Critical concerns include potential democratic backsliding, withdrawal from international institutions like WHO, and degradation of state capacity through civil service purges.
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Executive summary: The Effective Institutions Project analyzes key scenarios and opportunities for influence in the upcoming Trump administration, identifying AI governance, US-China relations, and government efficiency reform as promising areas for positive impact despite significant risks.
Key points:
US federal government rated as world’s most important institution by experts across domains, with decisions in 2025-2028 potentially having unprecedented global impact.
Five key scenario areas tracked: AI governance (6/10), national security (6/10), global health (5/10), democracy/rule of law (4/10), and state capacity (5/10).
Top intervention opportunities: influencing AI policy to prevent unsafe acceleration, guiding US-China relations to avoid miscalculation-based conflicts, and steering government efficiency reforms.
Administration likely to be “high-variance” with both serious risks and reform opportunities due to Trump’s management style and anti-establishment stance.
Critical concerns include potential democratic backsliding, withdrawal from international institutions like WHO, and degradation of state capacity through civil service purges.
This comment was auto-generated by the EA Forum Team. Feel free to point out issues with this summary by replying to the comment, and contact us if you have feedback.