Thanks for writing this post! I wholeheartedly agree for the most part, and think that I personally have underweighted earning-to-give in the past (though it’s obviously hard to disentangle this from hindsight bias, and there is the unfortunate dynamic that strong quantitative skillset both select well for high ETG potential and high AI safety potential). I particularly think I held status quo bias re the stability of the funding and underweighted the lack of diversity.
I also appreciate the fairly even handed tone, and effort to avoid hindsight bias or “I told you so”s
Thanks Neel, and especially for your honest self reflection. I’m not confident that FTX failing means it was likely to fail in expectation, so I think we need to be careful about saying “because this failed it was wrong ever to think it wouldn’t, and any argument built on that premise was stupid.”
I’m also pretty worried about EAs tearing into each other ATM without the full facts (or even with them, tbh). So I was aiming for the tone you mention, and I hope we can see more of this in the discourse (albeit that many people are legitimately very, very angry at the moment).
Thanks for writing this post! I wholeheartedly agree for the most part, and think that I personally have underweighted earning-to-give in the past (though it’s obviously hard to disentangle this from hindsight bias, and there is the unfortunate dynamic that strong quantitative skillset both select well for high ETG potential and high AI safety potential). I particularly think I held status quo bias re the stability of the funding and underweighted the lack of diversity.
I also appreciate the fairly even handed tone, and effort to avoid hindsight bias or “I told you so”s
Thanks Neel, and especially for your honest self reflection. I’m not confident that FTX failing means it was likely to fail in expectation, so I think we need to be careful about saying “because this failed it was wrong ever to think it wouldn’t, and any argument built on that premise was stupid.”
I’m also pretty worried about EAs tearing into each other ATM without the full facts (or even with them, tbh). So I was aiming for the tone you mention, and I hope we can see more of this in the discourse (albeit that many people are legitimately very, very angry at the moment).