Ok, I slightly overstated the point. This time, the supers selected were not a (mostly) random draw from the set of supers. But they were in the original X-risk tournament, and in that case too, they were not persuaded to change their credences via further interaction with the concerned (that is the X-risk experts.) Then, when we took the more skeptical of them and gave them yet more exposure to AI safety arguments, that still failed to move the skeptics. I think taken together, these two results show that AI safety arguments are not all that persuasive to the average super. (More precisely, that no amount of exposure to them will persuade all supers as a group to the point where they get a median significantly above 0.75% in X-risk by the centuries end.)
Ok, I slightly overstated the point. This time, the supers selected were not a (mostly) random draw from the set of supers. But they were in the original X-risk tournament, and in that case too, they were not persuaded to change their credences via further interaction with the concerned (that is the X-risk experts.) Then, when we took the more skeptical of them and gave them yet more exposure to AI safety arguments, that still failed to move the skeptics. I think taken together, these two results show that AI safety arguments are not all that persuasive to the average super. (More precisely, that no amount of exposure to them will persuade all supers as a group to the point where they get a median significantly above 0.75% in X-risk by the centuries end.)