You’re right I didn’t make a full, airtight argument, and that severity of infection is indeed a crucial consideration. My extremely unqualified impression is that:
Long covid is real but no longer the main source of expected disvalue for the 3x-vax’d
A non-trivial number of 3x-vax’d people (20%?) who catch covid lose more than half productivity and/or quality of life for 4-21 days, and this is where most of the expected disvalue comes from
This is what my brain has decided on after being exposed to a bunch of unstructured information so the error bars are very large, and I should probably update toward your POV
You’re right I didn’t make a full, airtight argument, and that severity of infection is indeed a crucial consideration. My extremely unqualified impression is that:
Long covid is real but no longer the main source of expected disvalue for the 3x-vax’d
A non-trivial number of 3x-vax’d people (20%?) who catch covid lose more than half productivity and/or quality of life for 4-21 days, and this is where most of the expected disvalue comes from
This is what my brain has decided on after being exposed to a bunch of unstructured information so the error bars are very large, and I should probably update toward your POV