In The Precipice, you shared a personal estimate of the total risk of existential disaster in the next 100 years at ⅙.
What odds would you put on a catastrophe that leads us to record more than 500 million human deaths in a 12 month period before 2120?
Context: Our World in Data suggest that from 1950-present, 50-60 million people died each year. They estimate the number will be in the 60-120 million range up to 2100.
In The Precipice, you shared a personal estimate of the total risk of existential disaster in the next 100 years at ⅙.
What odds would you put on a catastrophe that leads us to record more than 500 million human deaths in a 12 month period before 2120?
Context: Our World in Data suggest that from 1950-present, 50-60 million people died each year. They estimate the number will be in the 60-120 million range up to 2100.