[EDIT: I’m getting disagrees and I’d really appreciate if people could explain how I’m wrong that posting controversial things under a real name is better, in expected value terms? Likelihood of pros vs likelihood of cons? Or tell me which other piece you disagree with?]
In that case, here’s a conflicting claim to the contrary, which I believe it is easy to find evidence of: We are in a social movement where you get social status for being critical, attempting to solve problems proactively, and going against the grain, you get extra status for doing it bravely and publicly (as opposed to in the backrooms or something), you also get (heaps of) social status for admitting you were wrong and redacting your claim, and you get points for doing conversation well.
So, here are 4 scenarios I see (which again I’m not collecting evidence of but I believe it is there for all to see): 1. If you use your real name to write a criticism and it is well received, that’s a win.
2. If you use your real name to post a criticism and it is not well recieved, and you are convinced you were wrong, you can post a redaction, or do both edit the top of your post and add a few comments saying commentors were right. You can also DM people thanks for changing your mind. You will get points for epistemic humility and bringing issues to light so they can be addressed, and that’s a win.
3. If you use your real name to post criticism and it is not well recieved, but you still believe your own side, then you won’t be the only one to believe it. You get to have your name attached to the idea and people who still inevitably agree with you can reach out and give you opportunties. Plus you can feel liberated to put your energy elsewhere. Why would you want to work with people who don’t agree with you in cases relevant to your work? And if it isn’t relevant to your work, oh well. Now, here’s the real win: if you are proven right in the longrun! Think of the points in and outside the movement. Example: Imagine if someone had posted a public complaint of SBF and FTX before the crisis (and it had been ignored). Damn, that person would have gotten multiple journalist requests and EAs would be like “teach us your forecasting skillz pls”
4. If you use your real name to write criticism and the response is complex and answer TBD, see the last sentence of #2. Also, if you use the conversation well, every thoughtful, epistemically humble comment you make will get you points, as will your post overall.
As I said these are examples not really evidence, but these are things I see happen and I think it is easy to find evidence of these if you search for them.
I expect comparatively little benefit to posting under a pseudonym. If you (reader) think these benefits are fake/overblown, or you’d get more benefit from anon posting still, or you expect retribution on net (rather than status), I really don’t get why you like and believe in this movement tbh. I’d just throw it out if I were you. I think effective altruism’s commitment to epistemics and judging people on their merits with doing good are where its strength lies. If you don’t trust people in the movement to do the former, idk what to say.
Hello Ivy! I think you’ve missed at least one scenario, which is where you use your real name, your criticism is not well received, you have identified yourself as a troublemaker, and those in positions of power torpedo you. Surely this is a possibility? Unless people think it’s a serious possibility, it’s hard to make sense of why people write things anonymously, or just stay silent.
Honestly I don’t think this is a good enough reason to post anonymously though… [Edit: In that I don’t think this risk makes the expected value of using your name negative. Even if there is a serious chance, it’s surely a relatively small one compared to other outcomes. Above I was attempting to show that there are pros to posting anonymously which outweigh the cons in expected value terms. I don’t think that changes the calculus.]
I also think it may not be a con exactly if that happens. Or it’s a pro and con nested together? Because I think EAs torpedoing people would be a serious issue that would need revealing. I don’t get why people wouldn’t want to use this moment to test the toxicity of the movement they want to be in tbh. Why would you just… not want to know if you’d be torpedoed? In that case it falls within #3 still: “If your critique is not well received… You can feel liberated to put your energy elsewhere.”
And if you get torpedoed, you can always write an expose about that and help people who might be in a similar situation in the future!
Maybe someday I’ll be torpedoed tbh. If this is a thing that leaders will do to anyone, I’m probably weird enough and have done misinterpretable enough things. Maybe I’d deserve it and maybe not, but either way I’d like to know if it’s going to happen so that I should move on. In case you can’t tell, I have already had concerns like the anons seem to have, but I’ve decided I wouldn’t like thinking “Is EA for me or not?” It’s not pleasant or motivating. Honestly it’s amazing how much that question drags down your potential. I want the answer not to live with the question. As long as I don’t get torpedoed when being myself (or develop serious problems with the movement), that answer is yes. Which is just much more workable. Why would I not want to know? EA is not like, sacred. It can and should be thrown out of your roster if it’s a bad fit or a problematic entity.
[Edit: I wonder if EAs just need to be taught these sorts of calculations?]
[EDIT: I’m getting disagrees and I’d really appreciate if people could explain how I’m wrong that posting controversial things under a real name is better, in expected value terms? Likelihood of pros vs likelihood of cons? Or tell me which other piece you disagree with?]
In that case, here’s a conflicting claim to the contrary, which I believe it is easy to find evidence of: We are in a social movement where you get social status for being critical, attempting to solve problems proactively, and going against the grain, you get extra status for doing it bravely and publicly (as opposed to in the backrooms or something), you also get (heaps of) social status for admitting you were wrong and redacting your claim, and you get points for doing conversation well.
So, here are 4 scenarios I see (which again I’m not collecting evidence of but I believe it is there for all to see):
1. If you use your real name to write a criticism and it is well received, that’s a win.
2. If you use your real name to post a criticism and it is not well recieved, and you are convinced you were wrong, you can post a redaction, or do both edit the top of your post and add a few comments saying commentors were right. You can also DM people thanks for changing your mind. You will get points for epistemic humility and bringing issues to light so they can be addressed, and that’s a win.
3. If you use your real name to post criticism and it is not well recieved, but you still believe your own side, then you won’t be the only one to believe it. You get to have your name attached to the idea and people who still inevitably agree with you can reach out and give you opportunties. Plus you can feel liberated to put your energy elsewhere. Why would you want to work with people who don’t agree with you in cases relevant to your work? And if it isn’t relevant to your work, oh well. Now, here’s the real win: if you are proven right in the longrun! Think of the points in and outside the movement. Example: Imagine if someone had posted a public complaint of SBF and FTX before the crisis (and it had been ignored). Damn, that person would have gotten multiple journalist requests and EAs would be like “teach us your forecasting skillz pls”
4. If you use your real name to write criticism and the response is complex and answer TBD, see the last sentence of #2. Also, if you use the conversation well, every thoughtful, epistemically humble comment you make will get you points, as will your post overall.
As I said these are examples not really evidence, but these are things I see happen and I think it is easy to find evidence of these if you search for them.
I expect comparatively little benefit to posting under a pseudonym. If you (reader) think these benefits are fake/overblown, or you’d get more benefit from anon posting still, or you expect retribution on net (rather than status), I really don’t get why you like and believe in this movement tbh. I’d just throw it out if I were you. I think effective altruism’s commitment to epistemics and judging people on their merits with doing good are where its strength lies. If you don’t trust people in the movement to do the former, idk what to say.
Hello Ivy! I think you’ve missed at least one scenario, which is where you use your real name, your criticism is not well received, you have identified yourself as a troublemaker, and those in positions of power torpedo you. Surely this is a possibility? Unless people think it’s a serious possibility, it’s hard to make sense of why people write things anonymously, or just stay silent.
Honestly I don’t think this is a good enough reason to post anonymously though… [Edit: In that I don’t think this risk makes the expected value of using your name negative. Even if there is a serious chance, it’s surely a relatively small one compared to other outcomes. Above I was attempting to show that there are pros to posting anonymously which outweigh the cons in expected value terms. I don’t think that changes the calculus.]
I also think it may not be a con exactly if that happens. Or it’s a pro and con nested together? Because I think EAs torpedoing people would be a serious issue that would need revealing. I don’t get why people wouldn’t want to use this moment to test the toxicity of the movement they want to be in tbh. Why would you just… not want to know if you’d be torpedoed? In that case it falls within #3 still: “If your critique is not well received… You can feel liberated to put your energy elsewhere.”
And if you get torpedoed, you can always write an expose about that and help people who might be in a similar situation in the future!
Maybe someday I’ll be torpedoed tbh. If this is a thing that leaders will do to anyone, I’m probably weird enough and have done misinterpretable enough things. Maybe I’d deserve it and maybe not, but either way I’d like to know if it’s going to happen so that I should move on. In case you can’t tell, I have already had concerns like the anons seem to have, but I’ve decided I wouldn’t like thinking “Is EA for me or not?” It’s not pleasant or motivating. Honestly it’s amazing how much that question drags down your potential. I want the answer not to live with the question. As long as I don’t get torpedoed when being myself (or develop serious problems with the movement), that answer is yes. Which is just much more workable. Why would I not want to know? EA is not like, sacred. It can and should be thrown out of your roster if it’s a bad fit or a problematic entity.
[Edit: I wonder if EAs just need to be taught these sorts of calculations?]