Michael_Wiebe comments on .01% Fund—Ideation and Proposal

[Michael_Wiebe]

I see, thanks!

So in the two-risk case, P(die) = P(die from bio OR die from AI) = P(bio) + P(AI) - P(bio AND AI) = (using independence) 0.01 + 0.99 − 0.01*0.99 = 1 − 0.0099 = 0.9901.
If P(die from bio)=0, then P(die) = P(die from AI) = 0.99.

[Zach Stein-Perlman]

Exactly.