You’re right, I didn’t actually mean that I’d certainly save several lives, in the same way that I would if I funded 2 life-saving operations which wouldn’t otherwise have happened. Instead I meant that I’d save several lives in expectation—i.e. that part of the expected value of my donation is the saving of those lives. I didn’t spell that out to avoid being too verbose. (And you’re right that this these lives saved are only part of the value of donations to AMF—as you say, they also spare large numbers of people the miseries of malaria, whether or not they would have died without bednets.)
You’re right, I didn’t actually mean that I’d certainly save several lives, in the same way that I would if I funded 2 life-saving operations which wouldn’t otherwise have happened. Instead I meant that I’d save several lives in expectation—i.e. that part of the expected value of my donation is the saving of those lives. I didn’t spell that out to avoid being too verbose. (And you’re right that this these lives saved are only part of the value of donations to AMF—as you say, they also spare large numbers of people the miseries of malaria, whether or not they would have died without bednets.)
I think we’re all basically agreeing with each other here now. Language is indeed a difficult tool.