I feel like while ripple effects from health/animal welfare interventions are certainly something to consider, I wouldn’t base too much of my decision on those because there are likely other more effective methods to achieve those impacts—for example, if the case for health is reducing suffering+ ripple effects in economic/technological growth, I would suspect that doing animal interventions (for suffering) and tech/growth interventions (for tech/growth) would do a better job at achieving both outcomes than making a single intervention which you hope will solve both.
I think that’s right insofar as you’re comfortable with high expected value via long-shots (that could easily fail). My sense is that the positive ripple effects from broad-based interventions like GHD are more reliable/robust than those from targeted interventions. So I think that could form the basis for principled support for GHD (and similarly broad-based interventions) as part of worldview diversification.
Are there ripple effects from GHD outside of economic growth that you are thinking about? I think my initial reaction was that there seem to be very durable, reliable ways to increase economic growth which likely are much more effective than GHD. Some of my thoughts came from this here , but also direct cash transfers or even investing in the stock market would (I think) be a more reliable way to increase economic growth than GHD.
This may be out of scope of the debate week question, but I feel like if the case for GHD is (suffering reduction + flow through effects which seem to mostly be downstream of economic growth) I think the fact that there are other reliable, durable, (probably) more cost-effective interventions to achieve economic growth means that the existence of ripple effects shouldn’t alter my decisionmaking, unless there is a unique ripple effect from GHD that other interventions would not capture.
I think a worldview diversification argument makes sense here—if having more humans is intrinsically valuable for non-hedonic reason, or we might be wrong and non-human animals aren’t sentient, or if there is a lot of uncertainty around either the value of economic growth or the effectiveness of other interventions on economic growth I think that a case for GHD totally makes sense. Curious if you had anything in mind for a ripple effect unique to GHD that couldn’t be achieved by another intervention or if you had other thoughts!
Yeah, it’s a good question. I’d like to see an in-depth investigation of possible ripple effects from GHD, since I don’t think I’m in an especially good position to evaluate that. I’m basically just working from a very broad and vague intuition that humans are the ultimate resource, and GHD preserves and improves that resource in an especially clear and direct way.
Besides economic growth, I would guess that helping to sustain the population is a distinctive all-purpose instrumental value here, that’s hard to achieve by other means.
This reminded me of this older post: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/omoZDu8ScNbot6kXS/beware-surprising-and-suspicious-convergence
I feel like while ripple effects from health/animal welfare interventions are certainly something to consider, I wouldn’t base too much of my decision on those because there are likely other more effective methods to achieve those impacts—for example, if the case for health is reducing suffering+ ripple effects in economic/technological growth, I would suspect that doing animal interventions (for suffering) and tech/growth interventions (for tech/growth) would do a better job at achieving both outcomes than making a single intervention which you hope will solve both.
I think that’s right insofar as you’re comfortable with high expected value via long-shots (that could easily fail). My sense is that the positive ripple effects from broad-based interventions like GHD are more reliable/robust than those from targeted interventions. So I think that could form the basis for principled support for GHD (and similarly broad-based interventions) as part of worldview diversification.
Are there ripple effects from GHD outside of economic growth that you are thinking about? I think my initial reaction was that there seem to be very durable, reliable ways to increase economic growth which likely are much more effective than GHD. Some of my thoughts came from this here , but also direct cash transfers or even investing in the stock market would (I think) be a more reliable way to increase economic growth than GHD.
This may be out of scope of the debate week question, but I feel like if the case for GHD is (suffering reduction + flow through effects which seem to mostly be downstream of economic growth) I think the fact that there are other reliable, durable, (probably) more cost-effective interventions to achieve economic growth means that the existence of ripple effects shouldn’t alter my decisionmaking, unless there is a unique ripple effect from GHD that other interventions would not capture.
I think a worldview diversification argument makes sense here—if having more humans is intrinsically valuable for non-hedonic reason, or we might be wrong and non-human animals aren’t sentient, or if there is a lot of uncertainty around either the value of economic growth or the effectiveness of other interventions on economic growth I think that a case for GHD totally makes sense. Curious if you had anything in mind for a ripple effect unique to GHD that couldn’t be achieved by another intervention or if you had other thoughts!
Yeah, it’s a good question. I’d like to see an in-depth investigation of possible ripple effects from GHD, since I don’t think I’m in an especially good position to evaluate that. I’m basically just working from a very broad and vague intuition that humans are the ultimate resource, and GHD preserves and improves that resource in an especially clear and direct way.
Besides economic growth, I would guess that helping to sustain the population is a distinctive all-purpose instrumental value here, that’s hard to achieve by other means.