Hi Mike, in similar fashion to my other comment, I think in my pursuit of brevity I really missed underlining how important I think it is to guard against nuclear war.
I absolutely do not think models’ shortcomings disprove nuclear winter. Instead, as you say, the lack of trust in modeling just increases the uncertainty, including of something much worse than what modelling shows. Thanks for letting me clarify!
(and the mantra of more detailed models → better accuracy is one I have seen first-hand touted but with really little to show for it, it is what details you include in the models that drove most of the impact in the models we dealt with which were about 30km x 30km x 5km and using a resolution of 20-200m)
Hi Mike, in similar fashion to my other comment, I think in my pursuit of brevity I really missed underlining how important I think it is to guard against nuclear war.
I absolutely do not think models’ shortcomings disprove nuclear winter. Instead, as you say, the lack of trust in modeling just increases the uncertainty, including of something much worse than what modelling shows. Thanks for letting me clarify!
(and the mantra of more detailed models → better accuracy is one I have seen first-hand touted but with really little to show for it, it is what details you include in the models that drove most of the impact in the models we dealt with which were about 30km x 30km x 5km and using a resolution of 20-200m)