I think if we only do spatiotemporal bracketing, it tells us to ignore the far future and causally inaccessible spacetime locations, because each such location is made neither determinately better off in expectation nor determinately worse off in expectation.
Oh helpful thanks, this reasoning also works in my sniper case, actually. I am clueful about the “where Emily is right after she potentially shoots” ST location so I can’t bracket out the payoff attached to her shoulder pain. This payoff is contained within this small ST region. However, the payoffs associated with where the bullet ends aren’t neatly contained in small ST regions the same way! I want the terrorist dead because he’s gonna keep terrorizing some parts of the world otherwise. I want the kid alive to prevent the negative consequences (in various ST regions) associated with an innocent kid’s death. Because of this, I arguably can’t pin down any specific ST location other than “where Emily is right after she potentially shoots” that is made determinately better or worse off by Emily taking the shot. Hence, ST bracketing would allow C but not A or B.
To the extent that I’m still skeptical of C being warranted, it is because:
1) I find it weird that finding action-guidance depends on my inability to pin down any specific ST location other than “where Emily is right after she potentially shoots” that is made determinately better or worse off. Say I had a crystal ball randomly showing me a prison cell in Argentina that, for some reason, is empty if Emily shoots and filled with starving people if she doesn’t. ST bracketing would now tell me shooting is better… It feels wrong to decide based on isolated ST regions in which I happen to know what happens depending on whether Emily shoots. There are plenty of other ST regions that would be made better or worse off. I just can’t say where/when they are. And whether or not I can say this feels like it shouldn’t matter.[1]
2) I’m confused as to why we should bracket based on ST regions rather than on some other defensible value-bearers that may give a conflicting result.
And I guess all this also applies to A’ vs B’ vs C’ and whether to bracket out near-term effects. Thanks for helping me identify these cruxes!
I’ll take some more time to think about your point about bracketing out possibilities and AGI by date X.
And that’s one way to interpret Anthony’s first objection to bracketing? I can’t actually pin down a specific ST location (or whatever value-bearer) where donating to AMF is determinately bad, but I still know for sure such locations exist! As I think you alluded to elsewhere while discussing ST bracketing and changes to agriculture/land use, what stops us from acting as if we could pin down such locations?
Oh helpful thanks, this reasoning also works in my sniper case, actually. I am clueful about the “where Emily is right after she potentially shoots” ST location so I can’t bracket out the payoff attached to her shoulder pain. This payoff is contained within this small ST region. However, the payoffs associated with where the bullet ends aren’t neatly contained in small ST regions the same way! I want the terrorist dead because he’s gonna keep terrorizing some parts of the world otherwise. I want the kid alive to prevent the negative consequences (in various ST regions) associated with an innocent kid’s death. Because of this, I arguably can’t pin down any specific ST location other than “where Emily is right after she potentially shoots” that is made determinately better or worse off by Emily taking the shot. Hence, ST bracketing would allow C but not A or B.
To the extent that I’m still skeptical of C being warranted, it is because:
1) I find it weird that finding action-guidance depends on my inability to pin down any specific ST location other than “where Emily is right after she potentially shoots” that is made determinately better or worse off. Say I had a crystal ball randomly showing me a prison cell in Argentina that, for some reason, is empty if Emily shoots and filled with starving people if she doesn’t. ST bracketing would now tell me shooting is better… It feels wrong to decide based on isolated ST regions in which I happen to know what happens depending on whether Emily shoots. There are plenty of other ST regions that would be made better or worse off. I just can’t say where/when they are. And whether or not I can say this feels like it shouldn’t matter.[1]
2) I’m confused as to why we should bracket based on ST regions rather than on some other defensible value-bearers that may give a conflicting result.
And I guess all this also applies to A’ vs B’ vs C’ and whether to bracket out near-term effects. Thanks for helping me identify these cruxes!
I’ll take some more time to think about your point about bracketing out possibilities and AGI by date X.
And that’s one way to interpret Anthony’s first objection to bracketing? I can’t actually pin down a specific ST location (or whatever value-bearer) where donating to AMF is determinately bad, but I still know for sure such locations exist! As I think you alluded to elsewhere while discussing ST bracketing and changes to agriculture/land use, what stops us from acting as if we could pin down such locations?