In theory, we could influence them, and in some sense merely wagging a finger right now has a theoretical influence on them. Yet it nevertheless seems to me quite defensible to practically disregard (or near-totally disregard, à la asymptotic discount) these effects given how remote they are
Sorry, I’m having a hard time understanding why you think this is defensible. One view you might be gesturing at is:
If a given effect is not too remote, then we can model actions A and B’s causal connections to that effect with relatively high precision — enough to justify the claim that A is more/less likely to result in the effect than B.
If the effect is highly remote, we can’t do this. (Or, alternatively, we should treat A and B as precisely equally likely to result in the effect.)
Therefore, we can only systematically make a difference to effects of type (1). So only those effects are practically relevant.
But this reasoning doesn’t seem to hold up for the same reasons I’ve given in my critiques of Option 3 and Symmetry. So I’m not sure what your actual view is yet. Can you please clarify? (Or, if the above is your view, I can try to unpack why my critiques of Option 3 and Symmetry apply just as well here.)
Sorry, I’m having a hard time understanding why you think this is defensible. One view you might be gesturing at is:
If a given effect is not too remote, then we can model actions A and B’s causal connections to that effect with relatively high precision — enough to justify the claim that A is more/less likely to result in the effect than B.
If the effect is highly remote, we can’t do this. (Or, alternatively, we should treat A and B as precisely equally likely to result in the effect.)
Therefore, we can only systematically make a difference to effects of type (1). So only those effects are practically relevant.
But this reasoning doesn’t seem to hold up for the same reasons I’ve given in my critiques of Option 3 and Symmetry. So I’m not sure what your actual view is yet. Can you please clarify? (Or, if the above is your view, I can try to unpack why my critiques of Option 3 and Symmetry apply just as well here.)