Are these recommendations based on sound empirical data (e.g. a survey of AI researchers who’ve come to realize AI risk is a thing, asking them what they were exposed to and what they found persuasive), or just guessing/personal observation?
If persuasive speaking is an ineffective way of spreading concern for AI risk, then we live in one of two worlds.
In the first world, the one you seem to imply we live in, persuasive speaking is ineffective for most things, and in particular it’s ineffective for AI risk. In this world, I’d expect training in persuasive speaking (whether at a 21st century law school or an academy in Ancient Greece) to be largely a waste of time. I would be surprised if this is true. The only data I could find offhand related to the question is from Robin Hanson: “The initially disfavored side [in a debate] almost always gains a lot… my guess is that hearing half of a long hi-profile argument time devoted to something makes it seem more equally plausible.”
In the second world, public speaking is effective persuasion in at least some cases, but there’s something about this particular case that makes public speaking a bad fit. This seems more plausible, but it could also be a case of ineffective speakers or an ineffective presentation. It’s also important to have good measurement methods: for example, if most post-presentation questions offer various objections, it’s still possible that your presentation was persuasive to the majority of the audience.
I’m not saying all this because I think events are a particularly promising way to persuade people here. Rather, I think this issue is important enough that our actions should be determined by data whenever it’s possible. (Might be worthwhile to do that survey if it hasn’t been done already.)
I also think the burden of proof for a strategy focused primarily on personal conversations should be really high. Personal conversations are about the least scalable method of persuasion. Satvik Beri recommends that businesses do sales first to figure out how to overcome common objections, then use a sales pitch that’s known to be effective as marketing copy. A similar strategy could work here: take notes on common objections & the best ways to refute them after personal conversations, then use that knowledge to inform the creation of scalable persuasive content like books/talks/blog posts.
Are these recommendations based on sound empirical data (e.g. a survey of AI researchers who’ve come to realize AI risk is a thing, asking them what they were exposed to and what they found persuasive), or just guessing/personal observation?
If persuasive speaking is an ineffective way of spreading concern for AI risk, then we live in one of two worlds.
In the first world, the one you seem to imply we live in, persuasive speaking is ineffective for most things, and in particular it’s ineffective for AI risk. In this world, I’d expect training in persuasive speaking (whether at a 21st century law school or an academy in Ancient Greece) to be largely a waste of time. I would be surprised if this is true. The only data I could find offhand related to the question is from Robin Hanson: “The initially disfavored side [in a debate] almost always gains a lot… my guess is that hearing half of a long hi-profile argument time devoted to something makes it seem more equally plausible.”
In the second world, public speaking is effective persuasion in at least some cases, but there’s something about this particular case that makes public speaking a bad fit. This seems more plausible, but it could also be a case of ineffective speakers or an ineffective presentation. It’s also important to have good measurement methods: for example, if most post-presentation questions offer various objections, it’s still possible that your presentation was persuasive to the majority of the audience.
I’m not saying all this because I think events are a particularly promising way to persuade people here. Rather, I think this issue is important enough that our actions should be determined by data whenever it’s possible. (Might be worthwhile to do that survey if it hasn’t been done already.)
I also think the burden of proof for a strategy focused primarily on personal conversations should be really high. Personal conversations are about the least scalable method of persuasion. Satvik Beri recommends that businesses do sales first to figure out how to overcome common objections, then use a sales pitch that’s known to be effective as marketing copy. A similar strategy could work here: take notes on common objections & the best ways to refute them after personal conversations, then use that knowledge to inform the creation of scalable persuasive content like books/talks/blog posts.