The estimates I provided in my comment were mainly illustrative. However, my 1 % chance of existential catastrophe conditional on human extinction was coming from my expectation that humans will be on board with going extinct in the vast majority of worlds where they go extinct in the next few centuries because their AI or posthuman descendents would live on.
The estimates I provided in my comment were mainly illustrative. However, my 1 % chance of existential catastrophe conditional on human extinction was coming from my expectation that humans will be on board with going extinct in the vast majority of worlds where they go extinct in the next few centuries because their AI or posthuman descendents would live on.